CNN has released a poll showing that Obama and Romney are all tied up, with both receiving 49 percent of the vote among likely voters. This is good news showing that Romney has a very legitimate chance of winning this election, right? Well, consider some of the stats of the poll…
Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
Democrats are given a +11 margin in the poll, 41 – 30? You must be kidding me.
Furthermore, as Twitchy points out:
There’s more. The poll shows Mitt Romney beating President Obama among Independents 59-37, an incredible 22-point lead.
Does anyone seriously believe Romney can win Indies by more than 20 points and still come out tied in the popular vote?
Ed Morrissey of HotAir.com notes that in 2008, when Democrats were extremely eager to find some Hope and Change, the voter turnout (Democrat/Republican/Independent) was 39/32/29. That’s a fairly substantial difference from 41/30/29 CNN is showing. He continues:
Let’s also take a look at the gender gap. In 2008, Obama got a +14 in the gender gap, with a +13 among women and a +1 among men. In this poll, Romney wins men by nine (53/44) and Obama wins women by eight (53/45) for a gender gap advantage of +1 for Romney.
So we are expected to believe that since 2008, (a) Obama has lost thirty points in the gap with independents, (b) Obama has lost fifteen points in the gender gap, and (c) Obama is still just four points below his 2008 share of the electorate? Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.
I’ll leave you with one final thought: we may have seen this before; a November 3, 1980 New York Times article published the night before the election was titled, “Reagan and Carter Stand Nearly Even in Last Polls.” How did that one turn out? Well, Reagan received about 51% of the vote, while Carter received 41%, otherwise known as a landslide.
Get out and VOTE.